Each of the projected state populations for 2030 is again calculated using exponential growth, and the state totals are raked to the national total. population for 2030 from Hamilton-Perry method. population for 2030 for each age-interval is set as per the age-distribution of the U.S. This is the final national level population projection for 2030. population for 2030 from Hamilton- Perry method is calculated by summing across all age-cohorts. population for 2030 from Hamilton-Perry age forwarding. The final national level projection for 2030 is set after calculating the projected U.S. population for 2020 from Hamilton-Perry method. population for 2020 as per the age-distribution of the U.S. population for 2020 for each age-interval, by redistributing the U.S. population for 2020 from Hamilton- Perry method can be calculated by summing across all age-cohorts. population for 2020 for each age-cohort is developed by aging forward the 2010 population using the averaged CPRs and CCRs. We use the ratio of population in an age-group (a) in one decade, to the population in age-group (a-10) in the previous decade, to calculate CCRs. 60-64, 85+, CCRs measure the combined effects of deaths and migration. We divide the child population by the appropriate population of child-bearing age to generate the CPRs. For cohorts 0-4 and 5-9, CPRs capture the birth rates in the prior decades.population, with data from 1990, 2000, and 2010 and use the average of the CCR and CPR values over 10, to smooth out fluctuations. We generate CPRs (child population ratio) and CCRs (cohort change ratio) for each age cohort of the This is the final national level population projection for 2020. population for 2020 is set to the sum of the state populations. Using 2017 as the launch year, we apply this exponential growth rate to get the final state level projections for 2020. The exponential growth rate for each of the 50 states and D.C., is calculated using population totals from 20. TOTAL POPULATION PROJECTIONS 2020 Total Population 2017 (1 July estimate by Census Bureau) – total.2010 (1 April count) – by 18 age cohorts, divided into male, female, and total.2000 (1 April count) – by 18 age cohorts.1990 (1 April count) – by 18 age cohorts.State population projections are controlled to the national total age is controlled to the state total population and sex is controlled to each age-group. Detailed national characteristics are equal to the sum of the projections for each of the 50 states and D.C. We use the Hamilton-Perry approach, which is a reduced form of the cohort-component method. The projections include total population, by five-year age groups, and by gender State and National Projections Methodologyīelow are the steps we followed when developing projections for the nation, the 50 states, and the District of Columbia for 2020, 2030, and 2040. The excel document contains several worksheets please click on the tabs at the bottom of the document to view the 2020, 2030, and 2040 projections as well as percent population 65+ and median age. The following Excel files contain aggregate population data for each state and the nation. Retrieved from National Population Projections Data The Center’s 2018 projections for 2020 are highly accurate compared to the 2020 actual Census count, and the Census Bureau frequently refers data inquiries to the Cooper Center website.Ĭitation: University of Virginia Weldon Cooper Center. Census Bureau, detail changes between 20 in overall population and in subgroups by age and sex.Ĭooper Center projections have an outstanding reputation and are widely used by many states and federal agencies, including the Congressional Budget Office. The projections, which were produced using the most recent population estimates and census data from the U.S. These population projections for the nation overall, and for all 50 states (and the District of Columbia), were produced and released by the Cooper Center in December 2018. A new round of national and 50-state population projections for 2030-2050, benchmarked on the 2020 Census, will be available by Summer 2024.
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